Rethinking Deterrence and Assurance

By Paul I. Bernstein Wilton Park

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The meeting assessed: 
  • How NATO partners view threats after Ukraine, and the extent to which the Alliance is suited to meet them;  
  • The likely trajectory of Russian force posture and conventional/nuclear strategy, and the balance between long running trends and post-Ukraine ones; 
  • The implications of hybrid and ambiguous warfare for how deterrence is practised, and how cyber, space and other operational domains can be included in the concept of strategic deterrence;  
  • How economic tools (including sanctions and other financial levers), diplomatic tools, and other approaches can complement a broader strategy of deterrence and influence the behaviours of other actors;  
  • Whether there exists a new norm that would be acceptable to NATO and Russia in light of recent events in Ukraine, presuming that things will not go back to the prior status quo.
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