Feb. 16, 2023

Private-sector research could pose a pandemic risk. Here’s what to do about it

Despite the increasing amounts of privately funded life science research, there is very little government regulation over private sector activities that might generate enhanced potential pandemic pathogens – germs that might not only trigger a pandemic, but that have been engineered to make them more virulent or more transmissible. This article discusses mechanisms, both legally binding and voluntary, that can broaden the reach of these oversight policies to cover all relevant work, not just the government-funded part of it.

Jan. 4, 2023

Turkey’s Future in NATO: Asset or Liability?

Recent disputes with other members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), engagement with Russia, and domestic democratic-backsliding call into question the value Turkey brings to the NATO alliance. In this article, Mr. Paul J. David-Justus examines the history of Turkey’s membership in NATO, the challenges Turkish domestic and foreign policy pose to the alliance’s objectives, the advantages and liabilities it brings to the alliance, and the options regarding the future of Turkey’s role in NATO.

Dec. 23, 2022

The PLA’s Strategic Support Force and AI Innovation

The Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) Strategic Support Force (SSF) is has a number of advantages that will allow it to help China achieve its aim of becoming a global leader in AI, including an environment that promotes innovation, its explicit charge for innovation, and leadership's support for “intelligentization”, but also notable weaknesses, including attracting and retaining a high-quality high-tech workforce, China’s inability to fabricate advanced semiconductor chips domestically, and the PLA’s limited combat experience and the consequent dearth of associated “ground truth” data. The SSF will be a significant player in the PLA’s adoption of AI, but the authors do not see it as playing a central role in the PLA’s overall AI innovation and development.

Nov. 15, 2022

Through a Glass, A Little Less Darkly: North Korean Nuclear Command and Control in Light of Recent Developments

North Korea’s new nuclear policy law points to the dilemma Kim Jong Un faces as he tries to reconcile competing strategic objectives: maximizing the deterrence value and operational utility of his growing nuclear capability while preserving his absolute political authority. This article discusses North Korea’s approach to nuclear command and control in the context of its unique governing system and political culture.

Sept. 16, 2022

North Korean Nuclear Command and Control: Alternatives and Implications

This study examines alternative approaches North Korea could take for command and control of its nuclear forces (NC2) as it makes critical choices on the type of nuclear strategy and posture it wishes to adopt. The report helps fill an important analytical gap in current assessments of North Korea, examines implications of North Korea’s choices for U.S. and South Korean deterrence strategies and defense planning, and helps shed light on the most recent announcements made by North Korea concerning its nuclear forces.

Aug. 30, 2022

Controlling Chemical Weapons in the New International Order

Mr. John Caves, CSWMD Distinguished Fellow, and Dr. Seth Carus, NDU Emeritus Distinguished Professor of National Security Policy examine the breakdown in consensus decision-making at the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and place this development in the context of Russia, China, and Iran’s larger challenge to a rules-based international order. The article further considers how this dynamic may play out in the OPCW in the coming years and discusses how the United States can continue to use the Chemical Weapons Convention and OPCW to defend the international norm against chemical weapons while better protecting itself and its allies and partners from a greater chemical weapons threat.

June 21, 2022

Russia's Cold War Perspective on Missile Defense in Europe

In this article, John P. Caves, Jr. and M. Elaine Bunn look at how Russia's opposition to the U.S. proposal to locate missile defense assets in Central Europe is primarily responsible for the controversy currently surrounding this initiative within Europe. They further look into how should Russia's objections be interpreted and what should be done about them?

March 14, 2022

Allied Assurance and Integrated Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific

While U.S. extended deterrence capabilities within the Indo-Pacific remain robust for the purposes of deterring regional nuclear-armed adversaries, the article written by CSWMD's Dr. Justin Anderson recommends Washington devote additional time and attention to the assurance of key regional allies increasingly concerned about the rising strength of China -- and the long-term reliability of the United States. Better communicating the enduring importance of U.S. nuclear security commitments represents a key step toward convincing allies to bolster their diplomatic and defense cooperation with Washington as part of broader efforts to develop truly integrated deterrence strategies in the Indo-Pacific.

Feb. 7, 2022

Registration Now Open for the 2022 Program for Emerging Leaders (PEL)

Applications for the 2022 Class of the Program for Emerging Leaders (PEL) will be accepted through midnight on 1 March 2022. PEL aims to foster a community of rising U.S. government leaders with the knowledge and skillset to respond to the dangers of WMD.

Oct. 20, 2021

Future Directions for Great Power Nuclear Arms Control: Policy Options and National Security Implications

With New START expiring in 2026, this Occasional Paper by 2020 National Defense University-U.S. Strategic Command Scholar Lt T. Justin Bronder, USAF, provides an assessment of several possible nuclear arms control/risk reduction approaches for the United States to consider. The author evaluates each approach for its possible impact on U.S.-Russia strategic stability, extended deterrence, budget costs, and other key factors, and recommends that in the near-term the United States engage other major nuclear powers in talks on new risk reduction and confidence-building measures.