July 8, 2024

Bolstering Biosecurity Amid the Biotechnology Revolution

The rapid pace of novel technological change, referred to as “emerging technologies,” is challenging our ability to devise policy and governance apace. This is particularly true in the life sciences and biotechnology, where the current tools used for promoting biosecurity via policy and governance are becoming outdated.

June 28, 2024

Implementing the Chairman's Guidance on Experiential Learning in PME Classrooms

In 2020, the CJCS called for more "experiential learning" in Joint Professional Military Education (JPME) classrooms. Within this April 2024 Joint Force Quarterly article, Dr Justin Anderson and Dr Paige Price provide an example of a simulated arms control negotiation for use in courses addressing major power competition, deterrence, adversary strategic objectives, and other related topics.

Aug. 18, 2023

2023 Biodefense Posture Review

The Biodefense Posture Review was a whole of DOD effort to develop guidance to achieve National Defense Strategy priorities and address biological threats - especially those with strategic consequences for the U.S. military.

April 30, 2023

How Emerging Technologies Become Emerging Threats: Workshop Report

Identifying how emerging technologies contribute to, or constitute emerging threats can better prepare society to take the appropriate actions to mitigate risks and possibly lead to measures that ensure better governance. The participants of a workshop devoted to examining this question found that social, cultural, political, economic, and other factors contribute to how emerging technologies may become emerging threats. This paper summarizes these discussions and conclusions.

March 15, 2023

Designating North Korean Nuclear Weapons as Proliferation Risks: A Proposal for Forestalling Major Power Conflicts in the Event of North Korea's Internal Collapse

A potential North Korean internal collapse would pose enormous challenges to South Korea, to include the risk of catalyzing a major U.S.-China crisis. Creative diplomacy by Seoul, however, could lay the groundwork for all three states to designate North Korea's nuclear weapons as "proliferation risks" within a notional future crisis, providing common ground for Washington and Beijing--who have worked together on key nonproliferation initiatives in the past--to tacitly cooperate on (or at least de-conflict) efforts to address the security threats posed by Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal within a dynamic internal conflict environment.

Feb. 16, 2023

China's Theater-Range, Dual-Capable Delivery Systems: Integrated Deterrence and Risk Reduction Approaches to Counter a Growing Threat

China has engaged in a dramatic buildup of its nuclear forces over the past decade. While much of the attention on China’s new nuclear arsenal has focused on its development and expansion of its strategic nuclear triad, this growth has also included significant numbers of theater-range, dual-capable delivery systems. These forces are not capable of reaching the U.S. mainland but can range U.S. and allied forces and bases across strategically significant swathes of the Indo-Pacific.

Dec. 23, 2022

The PLA’s Strategic Support Force and AI Innovation

The Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) Strategic Support Force (SSF) is has a number of advantages that will allow it to help China achieve its aim of becoming a global leader in AI, including an environment that promotes innovation, its explicit charge for innovation, and leadership's support for “intelligentization”, but also notable weaknesses, including attracting and retaining a high-quality high-tech workforce, China’s inability to fabricate advanced semiconductor chips domestically, and the PLA’s limited combat experience and the consequent dearth of associated “ground truth” data. The SSF will be a significant player in the PLA’s adoption of AI, but the authors do not see it as playing a central role in the PLA’s overall AI innovation and development.

June 21, 2022

Russia's Cold War Perspective on Missile Defense in Europe

In this article, John P. Caves, Jr. and M. Elaine Bunn look at how Russia's opposition to the U.S. proposal to locate missile defense assets in Central Europe is primarily responsible for the controversy currently surrounding this initiative within Europe. They further look into how should Russia's objections be interpreted and what should be done about them?

March 14, 2022

Allied Assurance and Integrated Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific

While U.S. extended deterrence capabilities within the Indo-Pacific remain robust for the purposes of deterring regional nuclear-armed adversaries, the article written by CSWMD's Dr. Justin Anderson recommends Washington devote additional time and attention to the assurance of key regional allies increasingly concerned about the rising strength of China -- and the long-term reliability of the United States. Better communicating the enduring importance of U.S. nuclear security commitments represents a key step toward convincing allies to bolster their diplomatic and defense cooperation with Washington as part of broader efforts to develop truly integrated deterrence strategies in the Indo-Pacific.

Sept. 16, 2021

A Weapon of Mass Destruction Strategy for the 21st Century

In a recent article in War on the Rocks, CSWMD Expert Consultant, Dr. Seth Carus, and colleagues explore how the U.S. government should, through the National Security Council, formulate a unified strategy that addresses the changing character of, and challenges posed by, WMD. That strategy should align current and future national security capabilities in order to prevent the proliferation of such weapons and discourage adversaries from using them to harm the United States, allied nations, and broader American national security interests.

Aug. 24, 2021

Policy Roundtable: The Future of Trans-Atlantic Nuclear Deterrence

CSWMD's Dr. Amy J. Nelson recently wrote a piece featured in the Texas National Security Review, titled the "The Cost of Uncertainty: European Strategic Autonomy and U.S.-E.U. Relations," that was drafted for a workshop titled “Transatlantic Disruption” at Perry World House, the University of Pennsylvania’s global affairs hub. The workshop was made possible by the Shapiro Global Workshop on Geopolitics Fund and the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

July 28, 2021

“Designer Biology” and the Need for Biosecurity-by-Design

CSWMD's Dr. Diane DiEuliis and Dr. James Giordano, Departments of Neurology and Biochemistry and Cyber-SMART Center, Georgetown University are featured in the latest issue of CBRNe Society's NCT Magazine.

June 24, 2021

Arms Control in Today’s (Dis)Information Environment Part III

Dr. Jaclyn Kerr's article is the final installment in a series of papers by Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) Fellows examining Arms Control in Today’s (Dis)information Environment. The goal of the series is to contribute to a discussion about how disinformation could play a role in future arms control treaties and agreements.

May 25, 2021

Arms Control in Today’s (Dis)Information Environment Part II

Dr. Justin Anderson's recent article is the second in a series of papers by Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) Fellows examining Arms Control in Today’s (Dis)information Environment. The goal of the series is to contribute to a discussion about how disinformation could play a role in future arms control treaties and agreements.

May 11, 2021

(Dis)trust and verify?: Arms Control in Today’s (Dis)Information Environment Part I

Ms. Sarah Jacobs Gamberini's recent article for Inkstick Media examines arms control and disinformation. This is the first article in series of papers by Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) Fellows on Arms Control in Today’s (Dis)information Environment, the goal of which is to contribute to a discussion about how disinformation could play a role in future arms control treaties and agreements.

April 7, 2021

A Year Of Working Intentionally

In the second article in Inkstick's series on The Future of National Security Work, CSWMD's Sarah Jacobs Gamberini pens a personal essay on the unexpected benefits of pandemic telework as a working mom in the defense world.

March 18, 2021

Quantum Sensing's Potential Impacts on Strategic Deterrence and Modern Warfare

Sarah Jacobs Gamberini and Lawrence Rubin recently wrote an article in the Foreign Policy Research Institute's Orbis journal of world affairs researching how quantum sensing could impact WMD, deterrence, and modern warfare.

March 10, 2021

Three’s Company? Prioritizing Trilateral Deterrence Against North Korea

Dr. Shane Smith and Brad Glosserman, Tama University, recently wrote a piece for War on the Rocks arguing that the United States should prioritize and operationalize a trilateral U.S.-Japan-South Korea approach to deterring North Korea. Their article offers concrete steps toward building a trilateral deterrence partnership.

Feb. 25, 2021

Deterring, Countering, and Defeating Conventional-Nuclear Integration

Dr. Justin Anderson and Lt Col James R. McCue, USAF, propose a three-part framework using the Department of Defense’s Deterrence Operations – Joint Operating Concept (deny benefits, impose costs, and encourage restraint) to bolster US and allied deterrence postures in Europe and the Asia-Pacific.

Feb. 12, 2021

Biodefense and the return to great-power competition

Dr. Gerald Epstein's latest article in The Nonproliferation Review explores the increased likelihood of the development and potential use of biological weapons by Russia and China. This paper is part of a special issue on chemical and biological warfare that is being published in memory of Raymond A. Zilinskas.

Jan. 27, 2021

China’s Hypersonic Weapons

Bernstein and Hancock identify potential strategic and operational issues that will need to be addressed as China's hypersonic capabilities mature.

Dec. 9, 2020

The biosecurity benefits of genetic engineering attribution

In a recent volume of Nature Communications, Dr. Gerald Epstein and colleagues examine the biosecurity benefits of genetic engineering attribution. This paper is a policy companion piece to a technical paper, published in the same issue, announcing new results in using machine learning to recognize the source of a genetically engineered DNA.

Dec. 1, 2020

The rise of the futurists: The perils of predicting with futurethink

In this paper, Dr. Alexander H. Montgomery and Dr. Amy J. Nelson explore probabilistic and possibilistic approaches to uncertainty related to AI, outline their potential advantages and disadvantages, and identify common biases that hinder good prediction.

Nov. 19, 2020

Social Media Weaponization: The Biohazard of Russian Disinformation Campaigns

In the latest edition of Joint Force Quarterly, Ms. Sarah Jacobs Gamberini describes the methods and goals of Russia’s influence operations, assesses the implications for targeting matters of public health, and provides whole-of-society recommendations for countering its influence.

Nov. 4, 2020

Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition

The complete "Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition" includes selections from researchers in the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) and the WMD Center. To read the work of Paul Bernstein, Justin Anderson, Diane DiEuliis, Gerald Epstein, and Amanda Moodie, navigate to pages 105 and 169 or view our publications page.

Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition Oct. 26, 2020

Weapons of Mass Destruction, Strategic Deterrence, and Great Power Competition

Mr. Paul Bernstein and others examine the role of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons in great power competition in the 2020 Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) Strategic Assessment.

Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition Oct. 26, 2020

Contemporary Great Power Technological Competitive Factors in the Fourth Industrial Revolution

In the latest Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) Strategic Assessment, Dr. T.X. Hammes and Dr. Diane DiEuliis explore how the convergence of new technologies is creating a fourth industrial revolution that will transform almost every aspect of 21st-century life.

Fit for Purpose? The U.S. Strategic Posture in 2030 and Beyond Oct. 15, 2020

Toward an Integrated Strategic Deterrent

Mr. Paul Bernstein's article for the Center for Global Security Research Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory explores the need for greater integration across the strategic forces toolkit as a means to strengthen deterrence and defense, the opportunities that exist to advance this goal, and obstacles that must be overcome to ensure progress

Fit for Purpose? The U.S. Strategic Posture in 2030 and Beyond Oct. 15, 2020

The Tripolar Strategic Balance in 2030

Ambassador Linton F. Brooks explores the trilateral strategic relationship among the United States, the Russian Federation, and the People’s Republic of China to give some plausible outlines of that relationship in 2030, the variables on which it will depend and its implications for U.S. nuclear policy.

July 29, 2020

Inevitable bedfellows? Cooperation on military technology for the development of UAVs and cruise missiles in the Asia-Pacific

Will states in the Asia-Pacific develop real capabilities to deter Chinese aggression? In this discussion paper – published as part of the Missile Dialogue Initiative research programme – Dr Amy J. Nelson and Dr T. X. Hammes examine the increased likelihood that UAV and cruise-missile technologies will proliferate throughout the Asia-Pacific.

July 10, 2020

Innovation and Its Discontents: National Models of Military Innovation and the Dual-Use Conundrum

Dr. Amy J. Nelson's Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) Report explores variations in national models of innovation, as well as the pathways or levers those models afford in controlling innovation’s end product with a focus on dual-use technologies. The report uses case studies of both U.S. and German investment in artificial intelligence and additive manufacturing to highlight national approaches to innovation.

June 15, 2020

Aligning the nuclear and conventional elements of NATO’s deterrence

In the latest NATO Defense College publication, Mr. Harrison Menke considers how a more cohesive and comprehensive NATO deterrence posture can help influence Russian leaders against the use of nuclear weapons.

May 7, 2020

Embrace Experimentation in Biosecurity Governance

Dr. Gerald Epstein and colleagues examine the need to rethink biosecurity governance to address changing technical, social, and political environments.

April 2, 2020

Modernizing biotechnology for the fight against COVID-19 and the future of pandemic response

Alexander Titus, Michelle Rozo, and Diane DiEuliis provide some perspective on the importance of using advanced biotechnology capabilities during the global pandemic.

March 25, 2020

Infodemic

In their article in Inkstick, Dr. Justin Anderson and Ms. Sarah Jacobs Gamberini examine the daunting challenge of attempting to halt the spread of misinformation (erroneous information) and disinformation (deliberately false information) about the coronavirus (COVID-19).

Dec. 13, 2019

Russia's Hypersonic Weapons

While Russian hypersonic weapons could pose problems for U.S. and NATO defense planning, their introduction in the near-term is not likely to fundamentally alter the existing balance of power or the prospects for strategic stability.

Dec. 2, 2019

Synthetic Biology Industry Practices and Opportunities for Biosecurity and Potential Roles for the U.S. Government

This report summarizes discussions with industry representatives about the current and future structure of the synthetic biology industry, perspectives on potential misuse and vulnerabilities of synthetic biology tools and capabilities, and business practices to prevent misuse of tools and to protect industry assets.

Nov. 6, 2019

The death of the INF Treaty has lessons for arms control

In her article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Dr. Amy J. Nelson argues that despite the treaty's failure, there is much to be learned from its undoing, as well as from the current state of arms control.

July 23, 2019

Systems-based Approach to Biodefense Policy Analysis

In this article, co-authored by Dr. Diane DiEuliis, the authors describe a systems-based analysis of the US biosecurity and biodefense policy landscape to analyze functional relationships between policies. They identify 2 approaches in US policy for countering biological threats: prevention of theft, diversion, or deliberate malicious use of biological technologies, and development of capabilities and knowledge to assess, detect, monitor, respond to, and attribute biological threats.

July 23, 2019

The INF Treaty: A Spectacular, Inflexible, Time-bound Success

This article discusses the changing dynamics that led first Moscow and then Washington to reevaluate the merit of the INF Treaty. It concludes that the treaty's relative rigidity may play a key role in its undoing and suggests that future arms control negotiations develop more flexible and resilient mechanisms of review, dispute resolution, and verification.

May 22, 2019

Honey, I Shrunk the Lab: Emerging Microfluidics Technology and its Implications for Chemical, Biological, and Nuclear Weapons

Emerging microfluidics technology has significant extant and potential implications for chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons threats. In E&C Research Paper no. 5, Cyrus Jabbari and Philipp Bleek argue that policymakers concerned about CBRN threats have an opportunity to get ahead of, or at least less behind, some of these developments.

Dec. 3, 2018

Deterrence in the 21st Century: Integrating Nuclear and Conventional Force

In this article, published in Strategic Studies Quarterly, Robert Peters, Justin Anderson, and Harrison Menke advocate better integration between nuclear deterrence strategies and nuclear deterrence operations with US conventional defense policy, strategy, and planning processes.

Oct. 25, 2018

WMD in the Digital Age: Understanding the Impact of Emerging Technologies

In E&C Research Paper no. 4, Dr. Bajema explores three broad trends associated with emerging technologies that are fundamentally altering the WMD context, changing the threat space, and undermining the traditional tool box for countering WMD: digitization, convergence, and democratization.

April 9, 2018

Emergence and Convergence: Research Paper Series

National Defense University — The E&C research paper series will explore specific topics highlighting the impact of additive manufacturing, advanced robotics, nanotechnology, and synthetic biology on the WMD space as well as potential governance challenges and solutions.

April 4, 2018

Biodata Risks and Synthetic Biology: A Critical Juncture

Intrinsic to growing ability to apply classical engineering to biological systems is the mounting ‘digitization of biology’, as the genetic code and its related metadata (including translated proteins, associated functions, herein referred to as “biodata”) are amassed in order to engineer biology for specific purposes. There are three unique risks categories associated with the digitization of biology: 1) pathogen risks; 2) manufacturing risks, and 3) risks to individual privacy that can allow human harms.

Oct. 3, 2017

Options for Synthetic DNA Order Screening, Revisited

DNA synthesis is a valuable research tool in the design of new biological products for medicine and manufacturing, and the ability to chemically synthesize long tracts of DNA has allowed for the development of influenza vaccines and diagnostic tests.

April 14, 2017

The Department of Defense Chemical and Biological Defense Program: An Enabler of the Third Offset Strategy

In the current era of rapidly emerging technologies, adversaries are not only rediscovering chemical and biological weapons; they are also displaying an increased propensity to employ them to cause strategic instability among deployed forces or nations undergoing conflict. The United States's investments in its Chemical and Biological Defense Program (CBDP) can be a critical enabler of the third offset strategy, which is a DOD initiative that seeks to maximize force capability to offset emerging threats.

March 20, 2017

March Issue, Arms Control Today: "Deter and Downsize: A Paradigm Shift for Nuclear Arms Control"

The nuclear triad approach to nuclear arms control deserves recognition for playing an important role in limiting and ultimately contributing to the reduction of their respective deployed nuclear forces, but it is unable to address the nuclear competition within the present geostrategic environment, where multiple states view nuclear forces as critically important to their long-term security. If nuclear arms control is to play a key role in preventing friction between nuclear powers and reducing nuclear risks in the 21st century, there needs to be a shift in focus and an expansion in participants.

Sept. 25, 2016

Why the U.S.-Israel Military Aid Package Matters

After months of tense and drawn-out negotiations, on September 14 the United States and Israel signed the largest U.S. military aid package given to any country, amounting to $3.8 billion annually. The new aid package reaffirms the United States’ unwavering commitment to the security of Israel. But the culmination of the aid deal, set to come into

Sept. 1, 2016

Law of War Considerations In Fielding Nuclear Forces

The status of nuclear weapons within international law was a subject of intense debate during last fall’s UN General Assembly First Committee session. State supporters of the humanitarian initiative on nuclear weapons pressed for resolutions asserting the illegality of nuclear weapons and sought to build support for the near-term negotiation of a

May 11, 2016

Limited and Lawful Hammers

The article by Gro Nystuen and Kjolv Egeland in Arms Control Today titled, “A ‘Legal Gap’? Nuclear Weapons Under International Law” begins by citing language from the “Conclusion” of the Final Document of the 2010 NPT RevCon, noting it “referred for the first time in [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)] history to the ‘catastrophic humanitarian

March 16, 2016

Applying Jus in Bello to the Nuclear Deterrent

On December 7, 2015, the UN General Assembly passed A/RES/70/50, titled “Ethical imperatives for a nuclear-weapon-free-world,” by a vote of 132-36. Co-sponsored by Austria and several other states central to the “Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons” movement, the resolution charges that any use of nuclear weapons would inherently violate the

Aug. 20, 2015

Putin's Russia and U.S. Defense Strategy

The workshop addressed two questions bearing on the development of U.S. and NATO strategy toward Russia.

Aug. 12, 2015

Iran Debates the IAEA Roadmap

The Rouhani administration is insisting on the confidentiality of its 'roadmap' with the IAEA in order to quell domestic criticism of the JCPOA and bolster the nuclear program's security.

July 1, 2015

The History of Biological Weapons Use: What We Know and What We Don’t

This article critically reviews the literature on the history of biological warfare, bioterrorism, and biocrimes. The first serious effort to review this entire history, made in 1969, had numerous limitations. In recent decades, several authors have filled many of the gaps in our understanding of the past use of biological agents (including both

April 14, 2015

The WMD Challenges Posed by a Collapse of North Korea

North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction (WMD) pose a number of challenges, particularly how to find and secure those weapons if the regime collapses. This paper will look briefly at 1) North Korea’s nuclear, chemical and biological programs; 2) activities coalition forces might conduct in a collapse scenario; and 3) challenges posed by an

June 13, 2014

Background on the 'Possible Military Dimensions' of Iran's Nuclear Program

As senior officials from Iran and the P5+1 -- China, France, Russia, Britain, and the United States, plus Germany -- prepare for another round of nuclear talks in Vienna on June 16-20, one major issue that cannot be left unresolved regards the suspected military aspects of Iran's nuclear program. The so-called possible military dimensions (PMD) are

May 20, 2014

Political Chasm Deepens Over Nuke Program

Iran’s political elite has become increasingly divided over the course of nuclear negotiations with the world’s six major powers, which began last fall. The current debate appears to fall into three camps: Nuclear Supporters: This faction reportedly includes Revolutionary Guards officials, personnel from the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran

Aug. 3, 2010

Nuclear safety in Iran, post-Fukushima

Although the Fukushima disaster has stalled the ambitions of some developing countries to deploy new power reactors, the Japanese crisis has not seriously affected the expansion of Iran's nuclear energy program. Among the 45 countries that are actively considering plans to build their first power reactors, Iran is farthest along in the process and

April 1, 2003

The Best Defense: Counterproliferation and U.S. National Security Policy

Neither terrorism nor the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) are new phenomena; states in key regions of U.S. security concern have for several years aggressively pursued nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons and missile capabilities or have engaged in or sponsored terrorism. What is new is the prospective conjuncture of these

March 1, 2001

Beyond Nonproliferation: Secondary Supply, Proliferation Management, and U.S. Foreign Policy

This article addresses both the supply motivations and the behavior of the three most significant secondary suppliers of proliferation technology (Russia, China and North Korea) as well as various U.S. policy responses designed to mitigate these activities.