Publications

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Dec. 9, 2020

The biosecurity benefits of genetic engineering attribution

In a recent volume of Nature Communications, Dr. Gerald Epstein and colleagues examine the biosecurity benefits of genetic engineering attribution. This paper is a policy companion piece to a technical paper, published in the same issue, announcing new results in using machine learning to recognize the source of a genetically engineered DNA.

Dec. 1, 2020

The rise of the futurists: The perils of predicting with futurethink

In this paper, Dr. Alexander H. Montgomery and Dr. Amy J. Nelson explore probabilistic and possibilistic approaches to uncertainty related to AI, outline their potential advantages and disadvantages, and identify common biases that hinder good prediction.

Nov. 19, 2020

Book Review: Shadows on the Wall: Deterrence and Disarmament

In the latest edition of Joint Force Quarterly, Dr. John Mark Mattox reviews "Shadows on the Wall: Deterrence and Disarmament" by Keith B. Payne.

Nov. 19, 2020

Social Media Weaponization: The Biohazard of Russian Disinformation Campaigns

In the latest edition of Joint Force Quarterly, Ms. Sarah Jacobs Gamberini describes the methods and goals of Russia’s influence operations, assesses the implications for targeting matters of public health, and provides whole-of-society recommendations for countering its influence.

Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition Oct. 26, 2020

Weapons of Mass Destruction, Strategic Deterrence, and Great Power Competition

Mr. Paul Bernstein and others examine the role of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons in great power competition in the 2020 Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) Strategic Assessment.

Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition Oct. 26, 2020

Contemporary Great Power Technological Competitive Factors in the Fourth Industrial Revolution

In the latest Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) Strategic Assessment, Dr. T.X. Hammes and Dr. Diane DiEuliis explore how the convergence of new technologies is creating a fourth industrial revolution that will transform almost every aspect of 21st-century life.

Fit for Purpose? The U.S. Strategic Posture in 2030 and Beyond Oct. 15, 2020

Toward an Integrated Strategic Deterrent

Mr. Paul Bernstein's article for the Center for Global Security Research Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory explores the need for greater integration across the strategic forces toolkit as a means to strengthen deterrence and defense, the opportunities that exist to advance this goal, and obstacles that must be overcome to ensure progress

Fit for Purpose? The U.S. Strategic Posture in 2030 and Beyond Oct. 15, 2020

The Tripolar Strategic Balance in 2030

Ambassador Linton F. Brooks explores the trilateral strategic relationship among the United States, the Russian Federation, and the People’s Republic of China to give some plausible outlines of that relationship in 2030, the variables on which it will depend and its implications for U.S. nuclear policy.

July 29, 2020

Inevitable bedfellows? Cooperation on military technology for the development of UAVs and cruise missiles in the Asia-Pacific

Will states in the Asia-Pacific develop real capabilities to deter Chinese aggression? In this discussion paper – published as part of the Missile Dialogue Initiative research programme – Dr Amy J. Nelson and Dr T. X. Hammes examine the increased likelihood that UAV and cruise-missile technologies will proliferate throughout the Asia-Pacific.

July 10, 2020

Innovation and Its Discontents: National Models of Military Innovation and the Dual-Use Conundrum

Dr. Amy J. Nelson's Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) Report explores variations in national models of innovation, as well as the pathways or levers those models afford in controlling innovation’s end product. This report focuses on dual-use. The report uses case studies of both U.S. and German investment in artificial intelligence and additive manufacturing to highlight national approaches to innovation.